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Amid the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.