Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
