Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.