Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
